19 May 2021 

The Price Of Gold


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What is sometimes frustrating is that people focus their attention on forecasting the price of gold.
The more sensational and spectacular the price prediction, the louder the harshness.
It is worth reviewing some of these predictions to help you understand them correctly.

Gold Forecasts

Quote: “If the current bull market in gold follows the timing and extent of the bull market in the 1970s, then the price of gold will reach $6,000 before 2014.”

  • Gold price on January 23, 2012: $1679.00 per ounce.
  • Gold price on March 14, 2014: US$1382.00 per ounce.
  • Gold price on December 31, 2014: $1181.00 per ounce.

How far is the price forecast from the benchmark?

Not only did gold not reach the target price, but it was in the opposite direction (that is, starting at the beginning of the same month). And continued to fall by 30% in the next two years, closing at $1205.00 per ounce on December 31, 2013.

The problem is not the rationality of $6000.00 in gold. This is very reasonable and possible; even possible. However, the forecast is specifically for time, and it is seriously misjudged in terms of direction and timing.

All of these are forgivable. Unless you are the owner of the subscription service and/or make investment recommendations to others, or distribute trading recommendations.


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JPMorgan Chase predicted that the price of gold in China will reach US$1,800 in 2013 February 1, 2013

Quote: “JP Morgan Chase believed that the price of gold in China will reach US$1,800 per ounce in 2013 because South Africa is “in crisis” and “increasing instability.” In the Middle East, JP Morgan Chase & Co. said that with the development of the mining industry, by 2013 In the middle of the year, the price of gold will rise to US$1,800 per ounce. According to Bloomberg News, South Africa is “in crisis.”

The price of gold on the day the title appeared was $1,67.00 per ounce. Five months later, on June 29, 2013, the price of gold was $1233.00 per ounce.

It is a “safe” forecast to require the price of gold to reach $1800.00. Only an 8% increase from the current (at the time) level of US$1,67.00 can bring the price of gold to US$1800.00.

But, just like the previous example, the price moves south with a revenge mentality. This time it dropped by 26% in just five months.

Title: Trump Win says $1,500 in gold… November 10, 2016

Quote: “Trump's victory in the US presidential election indicates that the gold price will reach US$1,500 per ounce in the medium term.”

Gold price on November 10, 2016: US$1258.00 per ounce.

Gold price on July 31, 2017: US$1268.00 per ounce.

Obviously, gold did not see a “signal” because its current price is almost the same as the price on the day the forecast was printed after the general election in November last year.

What is the “intermediate term” the author said? The longer the time frame, the smaller the predicted value. The U.S. dollar is expected to increase by 20%. If it takes two years, it will account for about 10% each year. In this case-or if it takes more than two years-is it worth the bold headline?

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Trump raises the price of gold to $10,000 November 10, 2016

The gold price and date are the same as the example above. If gold was in place 10 months ago, when can we expect some progress in achieving that price target?

More absurd price predictions usually revolve around the collapse or collapse of the monetary system. This breakdown occurred because the dollar was completely rejected after decades of devaluation. People simply refuse to accept and hold dollars in exchange for the goods and services they provide.

Now suppose you owned gold at the time. Will you sell it? At what price? How many ounces of gold worth one dollar will you use to separate?

If someone offered you $1 billion in monopoly gold today to buy every ounce of gold, would you accept it? 10 billion?

Okay, what if we see a sharp decline in the value of the U.S. dollar in the next few years? It can be said that the decline means that the purchasing power of the U.S. dollar has fallen by 50% from the current level. This is equivalent to a gold price of approximately US$2500.00 per ounce, which is twice the current price.

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If the current gold and dollar are in equilibrium (I think they are in equilibrium), then this is valid. In other words, the current gold price of US$1250/60 is an accurate reflection of the cumulative decline in the value of the US dollar since 1913.

The 50% decrease in the buying force of the U.S. dollar would be reflected in greater costs for different labor and products; an example which has gotten generally very natural in the course of the last 100 years.

On the off chance that there is a working business sector, and accepting you sell some gold and take benefits, what amount more will it cost for whatever else you may choose to purchase? Do you truly figure you will actually want to purchase different things of significant worth at ‘limited' costs around then?

Gold, in 1913, was $20.00 per ounce. Right now it is $1260.00 per ounce. That is an expansion of more that sixty-overlay. However, it doesn't address a benefit. Since the overall value level of labor and products today – as a rule – is multiple times higher than it was in 1913.

There are times when you can benefit from sharp moves in gold in momentary circumstances. By and large, these are not long before significant developments in its U.S dollar value that mirror an acknowledgment of the total decrease in buying force of the dollar. Also, less significantly, perceiving when the assumptions for others take the gold value past balance versus the U.S dollar.

In 1999/2000 gold hit value lows of $250-275.00 per ounce. Before long it left on a long term run coming full circle in a pinnacle cost of near $1900.00 per ounce in 2011.

After its top in 2011, gold declined over the course of the following five years to a low of simply above $1000.00 per ounce. A fleeting bounce back in mid 2016 took it back to approach current levels ($1250-1350.00) where it has commonly stayed without separating either or down to any critical degree.

Where were every one of these ‘specialists' in 1999/2000 and what were they foreseeing at that point?

Furthermore, since 2011/2012? They have been saying practically exactly the same thing again and again. Purchase now! Purchase more! Before it's past the point of no return!

At some point, it will be past the point of no return. Be that as it may, it is more a matter of monetary endurance now than any time in recent memory. The fixation on benefits, foreseeing and exchanging has clouded the genuine essentials.

Also, somehow, a great many people's benefits are probably going to disintegrate before they do anything significant with them.
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Gold – actual gold – is genuine cash.

It is genuine cash since it is a store of significant worth. What's more, its worth is steady. The U.S. dollar's worth keeps on declining after some time. The continually declining worth of the U.S. dollar and individuals' impression of it, just as their assumptions for it, decide the cost of gold.

Expansion is a guileful danger to our monetary and financial security. It has been foisted upon us to the point that we are at risk for losing significantly more than the worth of our cash. The capital business sectors are confronting dangers of monstrously more noteworthy extent than those of 2008-09. Financial movement is principally financed by credit and we are snared on the medication of cash and more exorbitant costs – for everything. We are told frequently that swelling is unconstrained and that we should figure out how to mange its belongings. That isn't accurate.

Expansion is deliberate and drilled by governments and national banks the world over. What's more, its belongings are eccentric and damaging. Also, the impacts of expansion are aggregate; subsequently, they will in general be more unpredictable, continuous. What's more, covered under the entirety of the surface shortcomings is the apparition of partial save banking. It is the authorized form of Ponzi plot.

Article Source: https://EzineArticles.com/expert/Kelsey_Williams/2474391

About the author
I am a financial advisor for a large international company. I studied economics and journalism.
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